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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-29 10:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290857 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 48.6W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 48.6 West. The depression is moving a bit faster toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this direction of motion is expected to continue with further acceleration through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become to a tropical storm later today. The system is then forecast to become post-tropical by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-29 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290856 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-29 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 023 WTNT41 KNHC 290249 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 Before sunset this evening, visible satellite images showed that a well-defined low level circulation was developing in association with the disturbance over the subtropical central Atlantic. However, up until a couple of hours ago, the system lacked sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone by definition. Since that time, a deep convective burst has increased in size near, and to the east of the estimated center. In addition, a curved band has begun to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Based on this increase in convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven. There was no ASCAT data this evening over the cyclone, so the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB. The initial motion of the depression is 050/10 kt. The cyclone is embedded in southwesterly flow to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough and an associated cold front. This flow is forecast to increase as the cold front approaches the cyclone, resulting in the system accelerating northeastward over the next day or so. Once the cyclone interacts with this frontal boundary in a couple of days, a turn to the north is expected. The model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the consensus tracks. Baroclinic forcing and upper-level diffluence should aid in intensifying the depression over the next 24 h, despite increasing shear. By 36 h, the combination of interaction with the cold front and passage over much cooler waters should result in extratropical transition. The system is then forecast to become absorbed by a larger low pressure system by midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is near the various multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 33.0N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2021-08-29 04:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 02:49:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:34:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-29 04:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 407 FONT11 KNHC 290248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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