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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 13 the center of Eleven was located near 12.9, -47.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 47.9W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 130838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 364 WTNT21 KNHC 130838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and a fortuitous ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicate that the center of circulation is a little farther south than previously estimated and remains well to the southeast of the deep convective canopy. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis confirms modest east-southeasterly shear impinging on the cloud pattern. A compromise of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass retains the initial intensity at 30 kt. Large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance still show the shear abating soon which should result in gradual strengthening with a peak intensity of 50 kt in 2 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with a deep-layer trough stretching over the southwestern Atlantic. This change in the upper wind pattern should induce steady weakening. A number of the global models indicate that the cyclone will become a remnant low by day 4 and open up into a trough by day 5 which is certainly possible. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory but indicates a more expeditious weakening trend beyond the 48 hour period in deference to the global model solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the depression. The song remains the same...there is virtually no change to the forecast philosophy and only a slight shift to the left of the previous track forecast was made in response to the southward initial position adjustment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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