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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-09-28 10:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280850 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 68.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 68.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.6N 69.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 70.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.2N 71.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.2N 72.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.2N 72.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 68.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2015-09-28 04:58:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 02:58:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 02:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-28 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280239 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Late-afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area located midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda has become well defined. Since the low has already had persistent and organized deep convection, the system is being declared a tropical depression. A 2312 UTC SSMI/S overpass indicated that the center of the depression has become at least partially exposed to the northwest of a large convective mass due to moderate northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, based on a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The depression is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days. The intensity forecast is below the multi-model consensus through the forecast period, closest to the HWRF solution. A low- to mid- level ridge north and northeast of the cyclone is steering the lower half of the depression's circulation northwestward while increasing northwesterly winds aloft are opposing this motion. The net deep-layer mean flow is therefore providing for only a slow northwestward motion of 315/02 kt, a rather uncertain estimate considering the scatter of recent fixes. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days, resulting in a the cyclone's drifting west-northwestward or northwestward. The low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward in 2-3 days as a trough reaches the eastern seaboard of the United States, and the increasingly shallow system should turn northwestward and north-northwestward at a faster forward speed if it still exists. The track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 27.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.7N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 27.9N 69.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 28.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-09-28 04:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 280238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 27 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.5, -68.7 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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