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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry mid-level air has taken their toll on the system. Although Rose appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the system is over warm waters and some convection could return overnight. If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in the official forecast. The remnant low is forecast to continue to gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by the GFS. Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. The cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the east-central Atlantic. The latest guidance envelope has again shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 24.6N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-23 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230238 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 The depression's organization has not improved since earlier this afternoon. An analysis of the ambiguities from 0000 UTC ASCAT-B data suggests that the surface circulation is just barely closed, with the center still attached to the northern end of a trough. Peak wind retrievals from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Based on the ASCAT data, the depression appears to be moving just north of due west, or 275/13 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest from day 2 through day 5. The more notable part of the forecast is the forward speed. Global models are showing anomalously strong 500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's forward progress toward the end of the forecast period. In fact, the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through 5. All this means that it will probably be a few more days before we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially threaten areas farther west. For the 5-day forecast period, there is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. This solution is not too different from the previous forecast. Overall, an environment of low shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist, unstable atmosphere appears conducive for strengthening. However, there is some sort of signal being conveyed by the global models (e.g., the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) whereby the cyclone's surface circulation does not really tighten up for another 24 to 48 hours. Given the system's current structure, this scenario seems plausible. Therefore, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening during the first 48 hours, just a bit below the intensity consensus in deference to the global model solutions. After 48 hours, the official forecast converges on top of the previous NHC forecast and still brings the cyclone to hurricane, and then possibly major hurricane, strength by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 24.6, -40.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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