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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-29 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 50.4W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 50.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A general northward motion at a slower forward speed, with some wobbles to the east and west, is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the upcoming week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. The depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-29 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 288 FONT15 KNHC 292033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-29 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 076 WTNT25 KNHC 292032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 50.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-29 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:34:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 775 WTNT45 KNHC 291433 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5, although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5, are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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