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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-18 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 180236 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 1(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) X(24) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) X(39) X(39) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) X(37) X(37) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) X(36) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 9( 9) 49(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 59(59) 8(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Sixteen was located near 24.1, -93.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 93.7W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 93.7 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180236 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO YANKEETOWN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 93.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 93.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.0N 91.1W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N 88.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.0N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 93.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-18 01:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Sixteen was located near 23.3, -94.6 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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