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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-10-18 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 180833 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) X(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) X(36) X(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 16(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 43(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 31(31) 28(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 35(35) 16(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 38(38) 28(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 30(30) 14(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 70(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 31(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-18 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180833 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Although the convection associated with the disturbance has increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre. Most of the global models forecast that the system will become better organized later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this morning. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in a few hours. The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland. However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic. Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 12 kt. The system should accelerate later today and continue toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough. Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning today along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by later today along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States coast from today through Saturday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 24.3N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 26.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 19/0600Z 29.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 37.5N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-18 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 24.3, -92.5 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4
2019-10-18 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180833 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance again in a few hours. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the possible center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-10-18 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180833 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 92.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 92.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.8N 89.8W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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