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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-10-17 16:58:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 14:58:07 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-17 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 171457 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 8(26) X(26) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) X(35) X(35) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) X(39) X(39) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) X(48) X(48) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 32(32) 23(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-17 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Sixteen was located near 22.4, -95.7 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171456 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The system is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 171456 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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