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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-10 22:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 20:42:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:23:31 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-10 22:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 102041 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AGUADILLA PR 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-10 22:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 65.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-10 22:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 102040 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 65.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-10 21:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10 the center of Six was located near 16.6, -64.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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