je.st
news
Tag: potential
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-09 23:06:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 21:06:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 21:06:24 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-09 23:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092101 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located northeast of Barbados has continued to consolidate this afternoon, with several bands noted in both satellite and radar data from Barbados and Martinique. ASCAT data from this morning revealed a sharp trough axis, but the system lacked a well-defined circulation. However, recent visible satellite imagery hints that a better defined center may be forming just southwest of the primary convective mass. These trends suggest the system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the western Atlantic should steer the system west-northwestward through the forecast period. Although there is high confidence in the overall steering pattern over the next several days, there is lower than normal confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially in the short-range due to the lack of a well-defined center. Exactly where the center forms will have some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of the exact track, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic over the next day or two, hence the need for Tropical Storm Watches for portions of those areas. The disturbance is embedded within an area of low vertical wind shear and SSTs of around 28C. These conditions favor additional development, but the occasional entrainment of dry mid-level air located just west of the system is likely to prevent more rapid organization. By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this week. A track directly over Hispaniola would likely significantly disrupt the circulation, while a track more poleward of the island could allow the system to stay more intact. An additional caveat beyond 48 hours is that vertical wind shear out of the southwest may also increase, which could limit the intensity after the system moves past Hispaniola, although uncertainty exists in how much the shear will increase given differences between the more favorable ECMWF and less favorable GFS model solutions. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system up to a 45 kt tropical storm before potential land interaction with Hispaniola and afterwards is conservative given the possibility of additional land interaction and less favorable environmental conditions towards the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-09 22:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 092058 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) VIEQUES PR 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT CROIX 34 X 22(22) 17(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 9 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AVES 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MARTINIQUE 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN
Tags: number
potential
speed
wind
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 9 the center of Six was located near 14.2, -59.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092057 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Sites : [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] next »