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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-08-13 19:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 ...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 50.3W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 50.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system remains an open wave but maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-13 17:24:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 13 the center of Seven was located near 15.3, -49.3 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1

2021-08-13 17:24:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131524 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Corrected to indicate issuance time of intermediate advisory. ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 49.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Brennan

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-08-13 17:02:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131502 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 A tropical wave and small area of low pressure moving quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic has been producing bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the wave axis. Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that the system did not quite have a closed circulation, but it is close. In addition, the convective organization has increased a bit since yesterday, with TAFB and SAB providing Dvorak classification of T1.5 and T2.0. Therefore, only an additional slight increase in convective organization and the low-level circulation closing off would make the system a tropical depression, and it could be at tropical storm strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Leeward Islands at this time. Subtropical ridging extending across nearly the entire Atlantic is pushing the low along quickly toward the west, or 280/18 kt. In general this ridging is expected to persist into the middle part of next week. However, around the Sunday-Monday time frame, some mid-level troughing over the western Atlantic could allow the system to gain a little more latitude before it runs into additional ridging located near the east coast of the United States at the end of the forecast period. The GFS, which has perhaps one of the strongest solutions, is a northern outlier and shows the system turning farther into the weak troughing, while the ECMWF has a weaker solution and keeps the system on a westward track across the Lesser and Greater Antilles. At this time, the NHC official forecast lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and it is also relatively close to the ECMWF ensemble mean, which is farther north than its parent model. The biggest negative to the system becoming a tropical cyclone and strengthening is its fast motion of 15-20 kt. However, that motion is expected to gradually decrease in 2 to 3 days. At that same time, deep-layer shear has decreased a bit, and the system will be moving over warmer waters and toward a slightly more moist environment. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through 72 hours, up until the system is near Hispaniola. After that time, land interaction is likely to disrupt the circulation, and the official forecast is below the model consensus aids on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and the risk of tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Sunday and Sunday night. 2. Heavy rainfall with this system may produce areas of scattered flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA 96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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