je.st
news
Tag: potential
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics
2018-09-07 19:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 17:32:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 15:34:38 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-07 19:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Eight was located near 13.2, -18.0 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 1A
2018-09-07 19:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 451 WTNT33 KNHC 071731 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 200 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 18.0W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 18.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is becoming better organized, and it is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today. Conditions are conducive for the disturbance to become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area on Sunday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics
2018-09-07 16:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 14:39:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 15:34:38 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-07 16:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 616 WTNT43 KNHC 071437 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa has developed a closed circulation that appears to be well defined. However, the convective organization, given Dvorak classifications of only T1.0, do not support calling the system a tropical cyclone at this point. However, given that the system is expected to be a tropical storm near the southern Cabo Verde Islands in 36 to 48 hours, advisories are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone at this time, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for those islands. Environmental conditions of light to moderate easterly shear and SSTs of 27-28C should support development of this system, and the NHC forecast shows it becoming a tropical storm by 12 hours. Gradual strengthening is indicated by the bulk of the intensity guidance through the next 3-4 days. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase and the system will be moving into somewhat cooler waters, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The NHC forecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance and a little higher than the IVCN consensus. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 275/09 given that the surface circulation is just forming. The synoptic pattern over the eastern Atlantic features a ridge to the north of the disturbance, which is expected to weaken by the end of the period. This steering pattern should result in a westward to west- northwestward motion for the next 72 hours with an increase in forward speed, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a slightly more poleward motion as the system responds to the weakness in the ridge. The initial NHC track forecast is close to the latest HCCA track consensus aid and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.1N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 08/0000Z 13.3N 18.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 08/1200Z 13.8N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.2N 22.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 14.6N 25.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 16.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 18.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 20.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
Sites : [187] [188] [189] [190] [191] [192] [193] [194] [195] [196] [197] [198] [199] [200] [201] [202] [203] [204] [205] [206] next »