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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-03 10:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 08:46:44 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Graphics
2018-09-03 10:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 08:44:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 09:28:27 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-03 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Seven was located near 24.5, -80.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-03 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 750 WTNT32 KNHC 030842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 80.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a westward-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical cyclone by tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft. Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible today across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-03 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 753 FONT12 KNHC 030842 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 7(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 8(49) X(49) X(49) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 10(50) X(50) X(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 18(41) X(41) X(41) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 10(42) X(42) X(42) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 11(36) X(36) X(36) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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