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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 3
2018-08-31 04:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 360 WTNT31 KNHC 310239 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 ...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 20.9W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago * Fogo * Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 20.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the disturbance or the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Friday or Friday night. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-08-31 04:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 359 WTNT21 KNHC 310239 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTIAGO * FOGO * BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.9W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.9W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 20.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 22.3W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 24.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.3N 27.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 30.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 21.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 20.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-08-31 04:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 358 FONT11 KNHC 310239 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PRAIA CVI 34 1 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SANTA MARIA CV 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-31 01:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 23:41:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 01:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30 the center of Six was located near 13.1, -20.4 with movement W at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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