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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-30 17:04:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 30 the center of Six was located near 12.9, -18.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1
2018-08-30 17:04:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 914 WTNT31 KNHC 301504 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 Corrected typo in the intensity paragraph in discussion and outlook section. ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 18.4W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago * Fogo * Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 18.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone tonight or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-30 16:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 14:46:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 15:22:06 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-30 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 882 WTNT41 KNHC 301444 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has continued to become better organized, and is producing a large area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast. The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west- northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with the output of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.9N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0000Z 13.2N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 31/1200Z 13.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 14.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 15.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 16.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-30 16:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 923 FONT11 KNHC 301444 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) PRAIA CVI 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) PRAIA CVI 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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