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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-29 04:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290252 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ITS COUNTRY FROM THE BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA CAUCEDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUNTA CAUCEDO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 59.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 59.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 58.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 60SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 59.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 02:05:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 00:05:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2020 23:48:06 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-07-29 01:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 566 WTNT34 KNHC 282352 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 58.7W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance center has re-formed near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-28 23:15:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 28 the center of Nine was located near 14.4, -55.9 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Update Statement
2020-07-28 23:15:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 510 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT64 KNHC 282115 CCA TCUAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 510 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 Corrected time in date-time product header At 500 PM AST, 2100 UTC, the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano, and from Cabo Engano westward to the northern border with Haiti. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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