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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-07-29 16:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 291449 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 3(21) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 2(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 2(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 5(26) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) 1(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 2(25) X(25) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 34 X 14(14) 33(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE BEATA 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 55(55) 23(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 74(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 82 14(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PONCE PR 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 42 50(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 77 15(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) VIEQUES PR 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT THOMAS 34 81 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT CROIX 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT MAARTEN 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)

2020-07-29 16:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 15.8, -63.7 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 5

2020-07-29 16:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 63.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Bahamas has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 63.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-07-29 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291448 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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