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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-07-29 22:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292044 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 Deep convection has continued to increase in association with the disturbance since the previous advisory. More recently, a band has developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a well-defined center. Earlier ASCAT data that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory revealed a large area of 35-40 kt winds well to the north of the vorticity maximum. This supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt. The estimated motion remains a brisk 290/20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward over the next couple of days, bringing the system near or over Hispaniola late tonight and Thursday. A mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States on Friday is foreast to weaken the western portion of the ridge which should cause a reduction in the forward speed of the system and a turn toward the northwest and north later in the forecast period. The latest iterations of the dynamical models have trended toward a more eastward solution, taking the system near or just east of the Florida peninsula. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center it is not surprising to see these inconsistencies in the model runs. As a result, the NHC forecast has been shifted eastward, but it remains to the west of the latest multi-model consensus aids out of respect for continuity and the continued possibility of further model shifts. The system is still forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching Hispaniola, and some slight strengthening could occur before landfall Thursday morning. Some weakening is likely as the system moves over that island. The system is likely to take some time to recover after its passage over land, and given the forecast for at least moderate south to southwesterly shear, only gradual strengthening is indicated at that time. As mentioned above, some of the global models are now showing a track farther away from eastern Cuba and east of Florida, and if that occurs the NHC intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the Inagua Islands into the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week and move near or over Florida this weekend. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the central and northwest Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2020-07-29 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 292042 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 13(33) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 11(34) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 9(28) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 7(29) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 7(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 6(32) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 6(40) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 6(40) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) 4(41) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 9(42) 2(44) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 7(44) 2(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) 1(34) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 7(34) 1(35) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 7(37) 2(39) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 8(29) 1(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39) 3(42) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) 3(33) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 3(39) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) 3(38) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 7(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 7(22) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 5(31) 2(33) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 2(31) 1(32) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 28(43) 1(44) X(44) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 6(35) X(35) 1(36) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 34 X 33(33) 15(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 68(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 8 72(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) AGUADILLA PR 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)

2020-07-29 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 16.4, -65.6 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 6

2020-07-29 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 069 WTNT34 KNHC 292042 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of Puerto Rico later tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-07-29 22:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 052 WTNT24 KNHC 292041 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 65.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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