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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Sally was located near 31.5, -86.5 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 23:51:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 21:24:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162351 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 86.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from the Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Florida line is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sally is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River. Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast through Friday: Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding. Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is possible. Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is possible. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Florida Panhandle coast but will continue to recede over the next several hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area this evening. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into parts of eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-09-16 22:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 410 WTNT44 KNHC 162042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The center of Sally continued its slow trek inland across the far western Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, and it is now located over southeastern Alabama. The satellite and radar presentation of the storm has continued to degrade, and surface observations and Doppler radar data show that winds have continued to gradually decrease. The initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt, and rapidly weakening should continue as the circulation moves farther inland. Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight or early Thursday, and degenerate into a remnant low in 36-48 hours. The system is expected to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeast U.S. coast on Friday. Sally is moving north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed of 6 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed as it become embedded within the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The dynamical models are tightly clustered and the NHC track is near the center of envelope. Although the winds and storm surge from Sally are expected to continue to subside this evening, heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to spread inland over southeastern Alabama, central Georgia, and western South Carolina over the next day or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is expected across inland portions of Alabama, central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and widespread flooding is possible across western/central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline of the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue this evening within portions of the Tropical Storm warning area in southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.2N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-16 22:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 86.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Alabama has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sally is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight or Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River. Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast through Friday: Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding. Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is possible. Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Walton/Bay County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur this afternoon and tonight across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into parts of eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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