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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 2

2020-09-07 10:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 42.1W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 42.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2020-09-07 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 070836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-09-07 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-07 04:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020 306 WTNT42 KNHC 070237 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020 The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the 120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model guidance envelope. The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4 days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day 5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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