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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-04 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 4 the center of Larry was located near 16.3, -44.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-09-04 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 040831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-04 10:30:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 887 WTNT22 KNHC 040830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.2N 46.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-04 04:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2021 02:38:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2021 03:22:50 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-04 04:37:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 078 WTNT42 KNHC 040237 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Larry has had a distinct but slightly ragged 15 n mi wide eye during the past few hours, while convective cloud tops within the eyewall have been gradually cooling. Intensity estimates have responded, somewhat significantly, to the improved structure, and TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes at 0000 UTC were T5.5/102 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively. In addition, objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are near 105 kt. Larry has become a major hurricane, the third of the Atlantic season, with estimated 100-kt sustained winds. The hurricane is located due south of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic, and continues to move toward the west-northwest (285/14 kt). Larry is generally expected to move around the southwestern periphery of the high, turning northwestward at a slower speed by Sunday and then north-northwestward by Wednesday as a deep-layer trough moves eastward across the eastern United States. There is fairly high confidence in the track forecast, with model guidance showing a below- to near-normal amount of spread through day 5. The new NHC track forecast is right along the forecast from the previous advisory through day 3, and then nudged slightly westward on days 4 and 5. It should be noted that a few of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are still a little bit west of the official forecast at day 5, which might portend additional westward nudges in future advisories. By strict definition, Larry hasn't quite rapidly intensified since this time yesterday, but it has still strengthened quickly over waters that are considered only marginally warm (26-27 degrees Celsius). For the next couple of days, low shear, higher oceanic heat content, and a more unstable environment should favor additional intensification. However, there are still indications that Larry could run into an environment of higher shear and less upper-level divergence in 2-3 days as it approaches a mid-/upper-level trough currently located north and northeast of the Leeward Islands. In addition, internal processes within the hurricane's core itself, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could affect the intensity. In light of all these factors, the NHC intensity forecast relies on persistence to show additional strengthening during the next 36 hours, and then holds Larry steady through 60 hours at an intensity that is near the upper end of the guidance. Very gradual weakening is anticipated on days 3 through 5 while Larry heads in the direction of higher latitudes, yet the hurricane is forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period. Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.5N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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