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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2021-09-06 16:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 061454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 16(39) X(39) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

2021-09-06 16:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POWERFUL LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 6 the center of Larry was located near 22.1, -52.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 24

2021-09-06 16:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 061454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 ...POWERFUL LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 52.9W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 52.9 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening is forecast. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 24

2021-09-06 16:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 061453 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 52.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 60 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 52.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 55.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.9N 56.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 55NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 38.6N 60.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 49.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 52.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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