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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-09-06 04:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060245 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 51.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 51.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 54.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.0N 56.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.6N 58.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 59.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N 55.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-05 22:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Sep 2021 20:55:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Sep 2021 21:23:11 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-09-05 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052054 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of -75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt. Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory, due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies. Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days, despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have been two of the best performing models for Larry's intensity thus far. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.5N 50.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-05 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 5 the center of Larry was located near 20.5, -50.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 21
2021-09-05 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052049 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 ...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 50.6W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be possible. However, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this week. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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