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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-20 10:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 60SE 50SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 60SE 270SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 50SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 50SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-20 04:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 02:41:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 02:41:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-20 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200239 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Water vapor imagery indicates that Epsilon has been interacting with a shear line/dissipating cold front from the north and with a negatively tilted upper-level trough from the south. Furthermore, a pronounced dry slot has developed in the eastern semicircle, which has severed the convective band that had been wrapping about three-fourths of the way around the circulation. Overall, the cloud pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded extratropical low, with a small inner-core tropical feature. A 20/0025Z ASCAT-A pass indicated a small fetch of mostly straight-flow 40-kt winds located 60-90 nmi northeast of the well-defined surface center. Given the distance from the low-level center and lack of any significant curvature to those winds, undersampling is probably not occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and a 19/2202Z SATCON estimate of 42 kt. Epsilon is a large cyclone with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Epsilon is expected to meander within weak steering currents well to the southeast of Bermuda for the next 12 h or so. By late Tuesday, a ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through Friday. As an upper-level trough and associated frontal system approach the cyclone, Epsilon is expected to turn sharply northeastward between the trough and the ridge by late Friday, and accelerate northeastward thereafter over over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC model guidance is coming into better agreement, with a tight clustering of he various consensus models lying essentially along the previous advisory track. On the forecast track, Epsilon should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. Epsilon is forecast to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of at least 27C the next 36 h or so and, when coupled with 200-mb temperatures of -55C, sufficient instability will exist to continue to allow for deep convection to be generated both in the inner- and outer-core regions of the cyclone. Thus, gradual strengthening is forecast during that time. However, by 48 h and continuing through 72 h, SSTs cool to near 26.5C and the depth of the relatively warm water becomes quite shallow, as indciated by upper-ocean heat content values dropping to near zero by 72 h. The large and expansive wind field should result in cold upwelling both ahead of and beneath the inner-core wind field, which is likely to temper the intensification process. This may be reflected in the past couple of HRWF runs which no longer make Epsilon a hurricane by the time the cyclone approaches Bermuda on Friday. For now, the intensity forecast has only been lowered slightly since there may be some baroclinic interaction with an approaching upper-level trough that could offset the cooler waters. Epsilon could be undergoing extratropical transition by the 120-h forecast period, but for now the system will be shown as still being tropical since it will be located over marginal SSTs near 26C at that time. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 25.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 30.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.3N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 32.9N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 36.4N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-20 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 200239 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 23(47) 6(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-20 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.3, -55.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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