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Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-21 01:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 20 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.2, -56.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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epsilon
Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-21 01:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 56.3W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-20 22:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 20:55:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 20:55:29 GMT
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epsilon
Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-20 22:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202049 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 Epsilons structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery. Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several 45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle. The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races northeastward across the central Atlantic. Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA aids through the rest of the forecast period. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 27.9N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-20 22:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 202046 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 14(39) 7(46) X(46) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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