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Tropical Storm ELIDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-07-01 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 012035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-07-01 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 012035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 103.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 103.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Graphics
2014-07-01 19:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 17:36:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 15:07:16 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)
2014-07-01 19:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA BARELY MOVING... As of 11:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.4, -104.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 5A
2014-07-01 19:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 011734 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...ELIDA BARELY MOVING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 104.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. ELIDA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF ELIDA AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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