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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-07-01 10:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010848 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 The cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold cloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This structure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly shear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal for intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from the outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level trough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a weakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a little restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model. It appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours, with a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The track model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow southeastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast period while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a mid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should induce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC forecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours, following the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally close to the previous NHC track after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)
2014-07-01 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.4, -104.3 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 4
2014-07-01 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 010844 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...ELIDA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 104.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. ELIDA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ELIDA AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-07-01 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 010844 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) L CARDENAS 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-07-01 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 010843 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.3W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.3W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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