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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-05-21 07:04:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 210504 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Stewart


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Subtropical Storm Andrea Graphics

2019-05-21 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 02:33:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 02:33:05 GMT


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-05-21 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210231 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 There has not been much change in association with Andrea since the previous advisory a few hours ago. Satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection that is mainly confined to the north of the center, with less organized convection wrapping around to the southeastern quadrant. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of 35 kt, which is similar to what the aircraft found earlier this evening and in about the same location. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with the latest satellite intensity consensus from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Andrea is located a few hundred miles from a mid- to upper-level low, and its interaction with this feature is part of the reason why the cyclone is considered subtropical. This upper low and a ridge to the east is causing Andrea to move northward at about 10 kt. The models are in good agreement that Andrea should slow down and turn northeastward on Tuesday, and then eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the model guidance. Andrea could strengthen slightly overnight while it remains in a relatively moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after that time, a gradual weakening trend is predicted due to less favorable environmental conditions. All of the reliable models agree that Andrea will merge with, or be absorbed by, a cold front on Wednesday. This intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 29.5N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Subtropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2019-05-21 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 210231 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 0300 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Summary for Subtropical Storm Andrea (AT1/AL012019)

2019-05-21 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon May 20 the center of Andrea was located near 29.5, -68.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.


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Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 2

2019-05-21 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 68.7W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 68.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or south of Bermuda during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should begin late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 2

2019-05-21 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210231 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 0300 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-05-21 01:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 202342 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-05-21 01:13:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 202312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon May 20 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Guatemala continues to produce limited shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the disturbance meanders over the far eastern North Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-05-21 00:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202234 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 Satellite and aircraft data indicate that the area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring to the southwest of Bermuda has developed into a subtropical storm. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have recently exited the cyclone and found that the system has developed a well-defined center and has a minimum pressure of about 1006 mb. The maximum adjusted flight-level and surface SFMR winds support an intensity of about 35 kt. The cyclone is considered subtropical at this time because it is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system to its west, has a relatively large radius of maximum wind, and its overall appearance in satellite images. Based on satellite and aircraft fixes today, the initial motion of Andrea is estimated to be northward at 12 kt as it has been moving in the flow between a subtropical ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. The models show Andrea slowing down and gradually turning to the northeast on Tuesday and eastward by Tuesday night as it moves on the northern periphery of the ridge. Andrea could strengthen slightly through early Tuesday while it remains in a fairly moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after that time, gradual weakening should commence due to less favorable conditions, and all of the reliable models show Andrea opening into a trough and becoming absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday. The NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2230Z 28.8N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 30.2N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 31.1N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 31.5N 66.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

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