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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-19 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:39:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:39:08 GMT
Tags: graphics storm tropical harveyCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-19 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:37:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:37:37 GMT
Tags: graphics storm tropical kennethCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 Microwave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate that Harvey's center is still displaced to the east of a persistent cluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly shear. With no notable changes in the cyclone's structure since the last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which is in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers. Recent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey's center may have slowed down or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion estimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours. Once Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours, it will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely slow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although the track guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the 72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago. Northeasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the next 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening while Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone drops drastically, but the system's fast motion could still limit the amount of intensification that will occur. The best opportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when Harvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little lower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus. A lot of uncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF bring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land while the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it moves across the Caribbean Sea. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 13.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number discussion storm tropicalCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 190233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) X(32) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number speed wind stormCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number storm advisory tropicalCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 64.1W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor the progress of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 64.1 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). An even faster motion toward the west is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela. Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number public storm advisoryCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.7, -64.1 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary storm tropical harveyCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-19 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier SSMI/S overpass show that the depression has been strengthening during the past several hours. Impressive outer curved banding has developed in the eastern and northern portions of the cyclone, and the last few visible images are showing early signs of a small central dense overcast, or inner core formation. Based on the overall improvement of the cloud pattern and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth. The northeasterly shear is diminishing, the oceanic temperatures are warm, and the low to mid levels of the atmosphere are moist, all bolstering further strengthening through the 48-hour period. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures and an intruding stable air mass from the north should result in gradual weakening. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, and the NHC forecast is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/13 kt. Kenneth is embedded in the easterly mid-level flow of a subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The cyclone should commence a gradual turn toward the west-northwest around the 24-hour period as a mid- to upper-level low located just southwest of the southern California coast amplifies and erodes the ridge to the northwest of Kenneth. Kenneth's motion is expected to be further influenced by this growing weakness in the ridge by decreasing in forward speed, turning northwestward on day 3, and then north-northwestward around the 96-hour period. The guidance suite is surprisingly tightly clustered through the entire forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is hedged toward the HCCA corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.4N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.8N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 19.6N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.3N 133.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 25.2N 133.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number discussion storm tropicalCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-08-19 04:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 120W 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 27(27) 17(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 41(61) 2(63) X(63) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) 1(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 3
2017-08-19 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KENNETH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 119.1W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 119.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected Saturday night, and this general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number public storm advisoryCategory: Transportation and Logistics
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