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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-19 07:04:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
188 ABNT20 KNHC 190504TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-19 05:22:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 02:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 10
2025-06-19 04:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 834 WTPZ45 KNHC 190243 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Erick's rapid intensification continued through 18/23Z. as an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near that time reported that the central pressure had fallen to 953 mb. However, since that time, the satellite appearance of the hurricane went through a period when it was a little degraded, suggesting that the intensification rate may have slowed. This may be due to an attempted eyewall replacement cycle, as the aircraft data suggested concentric wind maxima during its pass through the center. The intensity is a little uncertain, as the plane had to abort due to computer problems before it could probe the northeastern eyewall. Based on the central pressure, the observed wind structure, and the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 110 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward at 320/8 kt. This motion should bring the center to the Mexican coast in the state of Oaxaca within the next 12 h, with a subsequent northwestward motion bringing the system farther inland over southern Mexico on Thursday and Thursday night. The forecast guidance is essentially the same as for the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has a slight nudge to the right based on the current location and motion. Conditions continue to be favorable for strengthening, and it is possible that Erick could get stronger before landfall if the possible eyewall replacement completes. Regardless of additional intensification, rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Erick is expected to dissipate over southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick continues to intensify and is now a major hurricane. It is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico in the western portion of the state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the state of Guerrero within the hurricane warning area early Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.2N 97.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2025-06-19 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190243 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P MALDONADO 34 79 10(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) P MALDONADO 50 13 16(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) P MALDONADO 64 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ANGEL 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 03:00 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 the center of Erick was located near 15.2, -97.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 10
2025-06-19 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 97.1W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 97.1 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero early Thursday morning, and then continue inland over southern Mexico during the day on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur before landfall. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, and they are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 10
2025-06-19 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190242 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 97.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-19 01:58:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 23:58:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 21:22:28 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-19 01:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
972 ABPZ20 KNHC 182346TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin about 55 miles south of the coast of Oaxaca, Mexico.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Gibbs
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 01:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERICK IS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 6:00 PM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 14.9, -96.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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