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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 17 the center of Joyce was located near 34.2, -29.0 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.


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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 19

2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 017 WTNT35 KNHC 170833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 ...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 29.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 29.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). The system should slow its forward speed while turning toward the southeast on today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch


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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 19

2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 018 WTNT25 KNHC 170833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 29.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-17 07:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

227 ABPZ20 KNHC 170536 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system suggests that any development should be slow to occur. This system will likely become a tropical depression later this week while it moves generally northwestward or northward at about 10 mph. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A small area of low pressure located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. This system is expected to move slowly west- southwestward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-17 07:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

261 ABNT20 KNHC 170535 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Florence, located inland over western North Carolina. A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac, is located near eastern Jamaica. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance remain disorganized, and only slow development appears possible during the next day or so due to proximity to dry air and land interaction with Jamaica. By Wednesday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to westward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Florence are issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Pasch


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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 71

2018-09-17 04:44:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018


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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics

2018-09-17 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 02:41:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 03:28:02 GMT


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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-09-17 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 919 WTNT45 KNHC 170240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is managing to maintain tropical cyclone status despite very strong westerly vertical wind shear. The system still displays cold cloud tops, but only within the northeast quadrant and at least 100 nm from the center. The shear is being induced primarily by 50-kt 200 mb winds. Usually such strong vertical shear would completely decapitate a tropical cyclone. However, systems in higher latitudes and moving in the same direction as the shear vector tend to be somewhat more resilient to the detrimental effects of the shear. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that Joyce will soon succumb to the combination of high shear, cool waters, and dry mid-levels, and become a remnant low within 48 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening, nearly the same as the previous advisory and based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF/HMON dynamical models. Joyce is moving toward the east at a quick 18-kt clip. The system has not been picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies and is expected to be advected around the lower tropospheric Bermuda-Azores high. Joyce should slow its forward speed and turn toward the southeast (on Monday), the south (on Tuesday), and finally the southwest (on Wednesday) before dissipating in about four days. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus and is slightly farther east because of the quicker eastward initial motion than previously observed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 34.0N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.0, -30.3 with movement E at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 18

2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 456 WTNT35 KNHC 170239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 30.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 30.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h). The system should slow its forward speed while turning toward the southeast on Monday, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low within the next two days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

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