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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-06-27 04:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270246 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Dora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have gradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. The hurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm very soon. Since the shear is expected to remain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in a somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day or so. After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder than 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay. Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans toward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A large deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally westward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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