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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-06 16:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061444 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 Sergio has remained nearly steady-state since last night and the clear eye is still surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The initial intensity remains 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. The primary moderating factor for Sergio's intensity over the next few days will likely be sea surface temperatures since GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the environment will be otherwise favorable. Sergio is now moving west-southwestward at around 6 kt, likely just fast enough to outrun its own cold wake. Little change in Sergio's intensity is expected for the next day or so while the hurricane is forecast to continue moving at around this same forward speed. By early next week, a slower motion will likely cause some weakening to occur, as Sergio becomes trapped over colder upwelled waters, with further weakening likely when Sergio reaches much cooler waters to the north. The ocean-coupled regional models show more weakening than currently indicated by the official forecast, while DSHP and LGEM show a stronger storm, probably in part because those models use a constant ocean field. Confidence in the intensity forecast is not very high, and it is likely that the faster Sergio moves, the stronger it will be. The global models are in fairly good agreement on the general track of Sergio through the middle of next week, but they disagree on how quickly Sergio will move along that path. Sergio is still forecast to make a sharp u-turn toward the northeast over the next 3 days and then accelerate in that direction between 72 and 120 h. Most of the models are showing a slightly slower forward speed than earlier cycles. However there are still large differences in their representation of a shortwave trough off the coast of California that will cause Sergio's acceleration, and the model spread remains high. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory but generally shows a slower speed, especially after 48 h, in line with the latest track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.7N 124.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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