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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-08-18 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A FEW DAYS. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 21.0N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.4N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 21.7N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 22.0N 46.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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