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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
2024-10-01 22:53:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012053 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY FOR THAT AREA AND WESTERN GUATEMALA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 94.6W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of southern Mexico from east of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 94.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast of Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm this evening or overnight, with further intensification possible until landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-10-01 22:53:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 576 WTPZ21 KNHC 012052 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 19:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011750 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Mora
Category: Transportation and Logistics