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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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