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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-12 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Convection associated with the low pressure area located well south of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this afternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a well-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the circulation. Based on the improvement in organization, the system is being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates of 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global models do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance (SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX) predict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the system a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. Given the low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for steady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model. The depression is moving westward at about 10 kt. A large mid- to upper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to build westward over the next several days. This should keep the cyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day forecast period. The models are in good agreement on the steering pattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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