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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-06-10 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100236 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 Although the intensity of the deep convection has not changed significantly during the last several hours, the cyclone has better defined features with thunderstorms consolidating near the center and fragmented bands to the east and west of the center. The initial intensity estimate is 35 kt, based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Cristina. Cristina has a few days to gain additional strength while the environmental factors remain generally favorable, and the models are in fairly good agreement in showing Cristina being at or near hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, the system is expected to move into a drier airmass with stronger southwesterly shear, and over marginal sea surface temperatures. These conditions should end the strengthening phase, and ultimately cause Cristina to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN for the first 3 days of the forecast period, and then lies lower than consensus closer to the LGEM guidance at days 4 and 5 when environmental conditions are expected to become more hostile. The storm had been drifting northwestward most of the day, but the latest satellite images suggest that Cristina is likely now moving slowly westward. This westward turn is in response to a building mid-level ridge to the northwest of the storm, and that feature should keep Cristina on a westward to west-northwestward path away from the coast of Mexico during the next several days. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one in the short term, and then is nudged northward trending toward the latest guidance. Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or warnings along the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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