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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-06-10 16:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased during the past several hours and two overnight ASCAT passes indicate that the radius of maximum winds has contracted down to about 25 nmi, which is more than a 50 percent decrease from this time yesterday. The advisory intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMSS, T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.0/30 kt from SAB, plus the appearance of a partial mid-level eye noted in 1237 UTC TRMM microwave imagery. The initial motion estimate is 275/04 kt. Both the track forecast and reasoning remain unchanged. Cristina appears to have begun to move out of a region of weak steering currents, and the cyclone is expected to move steadily westward along the southern periphery of a building deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. On Day 2, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a faster forward speed as Cristina strengthens and becomes a more vertically deep system that will be influenced by stronger deep-layer easterly steering flow. The NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and follows the consensus model TVCE. A large nocturnal thunderstorm complex that developed over central Mexico has ejected a large band of southward-moving cirrus outflow that appears to have temporarily increased the northerly shear across Cristina overnight. However, that thunderstorm complex has dissipated and water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that the upper-level shear has abated over the past several hours. As a result, the environmental shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to weaken today and continue to decrease through at least the 72-hour period. This should allow for Cristina to gradually strengthen despite being embedded within a relatively dry mid-level moisture environment. By 96 hours and beyond, the cyclone is forecast to move into a thermodynamically unfavorable environment, over SSTs cooler than 26C, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear, a combination that should induce gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the multi-model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 16.4N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 18.8N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 19.8N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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