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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-06-11 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Cristina is intensifying this evening. The compact central dense overcast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been apparent in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak classifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the center. Recent research has documented that lightning in the outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor of significant intensification. The only apparent factor that could limit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry air, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so. In about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of stronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should end the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and is pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN. Cristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6 hours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so while the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest is predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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