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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-07 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 The area of low pressure several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized during the past several hours. Earlier microwave images and current enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show well-developed deep convective spiral bands over the northeast and southwest quadrants. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that surface circulation has become more symmetric and tropical-storm-force winds are located in the convective band to the northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is being classified as a tropical storm at this time. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt based primarily on the scatterometer data. Eugene is expected to remain in an environment of low shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist low- to mid-level troposphere through 48 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to traverse decreasing SSTs, which should induce a slow weakening through the remainder of the period. The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the IVCN multi-model consensus and shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before moving over cooler waters. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A retrograding mid-tropospheric trough currently centered over northwestern Mexico has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which will allow Eugene to continue moving northwestward through day 5. The global and ensemble models are in good agreement with this large-scale scenario, although the UKMET is a bit of an outlier on the left side of the guidance suite. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, and is close to the multi-model TVCN and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 11.9N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 13.8N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.1N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.6N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.4N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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