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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-08 04:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 Eugene is gradually becoming better organized this evening, with infrared and microwave satellite imagery showing a large band of convection developing over the southeastern semicircle. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The initial motion is 315/8. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the previous advisory. A mid- to upper-level low moving westward from northwestern Mexico and an upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery near 19N 120W have created a weakness in the subtropical ridge west of the Baja California peninsula. This feature is likely to persist through 120 h allowing Eugene to move steadily northwestward into the weakness through the forecast period. The new forecast track is near the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope. Eugene is currently in an environment of light shear and warm water with good to excellent outflow in all directions. The large-scale models forecast the shear to remain light until the storm moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures in about 48 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening until 48 h, with the new forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. It should be noted that the rapid intensification index of the SHIPS model responds to the nearly ideal environment by showing a better than a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next 24 h. So, an alternative forecast scenario is for rapid intensification if Eugene develops a well-defined inner core. After 48 h, Eugene should weaken steadily to rapidly over the cooler water, with the system now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low over 21C sea surface temperatures by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 12.5N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.3N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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