je.st
news
Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-08 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 Eugene's cloud pattern has improved significantly since yesterday, and it now consists of a cyclonically-curved convective band wrapping around the center. The upper-level outflow continues to be very well established in all quadrants. Based on the average of intensity estimates of T3.0 and T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMMS, the winds have been increased to 50 kt in this advisory. Eugene has the opportunity to gather some strength and become a hurricane during the next 24 hours or so. However, after that time, a portion of the circulation will begin to reach cooler waters and drier air resulting in gradual weakening. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be over much cooler waters, and Eugene will probably lose most of its associated convection and become a remnant low. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 knots around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak mid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this steering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track during the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the tightly-packed track guidance. No important changes to the previous NHC forecast are necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.6N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 14.5N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 15.8N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.5N 115.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.9N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.8N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||