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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-08 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 The cloud pattern in visible images looks much better than the infrared presentation. Eugene appears to be developing a banding type eye, and the outflow remains fair. Dvorak estimates are now T3.5 and T4.0, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Eugene has the opportunity to gather more strength and become a hurricane tonight. However, beyond 24 hours a portion of the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual weakening. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be over much cooler waters, and Eugene will probably lose most of its associated convection and become a remnant low. The intensity forecast brings the winds a little bit higher than the earlier forecast, but beyond 24 hours, the forecast is similar to the previous one. Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 knots, steered by the flow around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak mid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this steering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track during the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the tightly-packed track guidance, and very close to the multi-model consensus. No important changes to the previous NHC forecast track are necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.7N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.7N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.2N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.8N 116.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.8N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1800Z 25.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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