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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-01 10:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 120 WTPZ45 KNHC 010832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Hector is still somewhat disorganized, with a majority of its deep convection displaced to the south and west of its surface center. In fact, a recent AMSU pass around 0515 UTC indicated that the center of Hector was nearly exposed on the northeast side of a small curved band. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have not changed since the last advisory and the ASCAT instruments missed the cyclone once again, so the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt. Easterly shear of around 10 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics, appears to be the primary factor preventing Hector from becoming better organized. The latest GFS and ECMWF runs at 00Z suggest that the shear will increase slightly during the next 24-36 hours before decreasing substantially during the second half of the forecast period. Despite the shear, all of the intensity guidance forecasts that Hector will intensify in an otherwise favorable environment, and the intensity guidance is generally higher than it was previously. The dynamical hurricane models, HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC all bring Hector to near major hurricane strength, while SHIPS and LGEM are a little lower. Given that Hector is still fairly disorganized, the intensity forecast for the first 24 hours is somewhat conservative, and favors the statistical-dynamical models. Beyond that time, the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than it was previously, but is still just below the intensity consensus. The estimated initial motion of the tropical storm is 285/13 kt. Little change has been made to the track forecast, which has been adjusted only slightly to the north through most of the forecast period. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the track of Hector, and the main source of uncertainty is the speed at which an extensive mid-level ridge to the north will steer the cyclone westward. Since I see no obvious reason to favor any one of the typically-reliable global models, the NHC forecast is now very close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.4N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.3N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 14.0N 140.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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