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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-02 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 691 WTPZ45 KNHC 020236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in banding in association with Hector, and the last several images suggest that a small CDO may be developing. Recent microwave data, however, has not shown any significant improvement of the inner core. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB, while AMSU and objective UW/CIMSS Dvorak estimates are in between. As a result, the initial wind speed has been increased to 50 kt. An increase in northeasterly shear by tomorrow is expected to temporarily halt the intensification process. However, the shear is expected to decrease after 48 hours, which should allow for strengthening later in the period while Hector remains over warm water. There is still a large spread in the intensity guidance by day 4, with the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance showing an intensity of around 65 kt, while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC model bring Hector to category 4 strength. Given the large divergence in the intensity guidance at the long range, the NHC forecast remains close to the consensus aids. Hector continues to move westward at around 10 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. Hector should move generally westward to the south of a strong subtropical ridge through Friday. The ridge is forecast to build westward by the weekend which is expected to impart a west-southwestward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. The overall track guidance envelope has not changed since the previous advisory and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track prediction is very close to the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.0N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 14.3N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 14.5N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.0N 135.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 13.8N 145.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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