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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-07-31 10:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 310840 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Irwin finally appears to be suffering from the effects of cooler water. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has decreased in coverage overnight, but the convection that remains is organized in a band over the eastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers have started to decrease, and a blend of the various T- and CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt. Irwin will be moving over SSTs of 22 to 23 deg C during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken. In fact, Irwin is likely to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, when the deep convection dissipates. The global models suggest that the low will dissipate in about 72 hours. Irwin is moving north-northwestward at about 11 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on a north-northwestward heading today, then slow down and turn northwestward on Tuesday as it moves around the remnant circulation of Hilary. The latest track guidance is in good agreement and no significant change from the previous NHC track forecast was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 20.7N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 22.4N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 24.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 26.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 27.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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