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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-07 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072046 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Javier has not become better organized during the day, and the associated deep convection is ragged-looking and not very extensive. Based on the earlier surface wind report from Manzanillo, the current intensity is held at 40 kt. The storm is experiencing some easterly shear, but gradual intensification while Javier passes over the warm waters to the south of the Baja California peninsula seems likely. The official intensity forecast again follows the SHIPS model guidance. The cyclone accelerated somewhat today, and the initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. Javier is moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. In the next couple of days, the system should gradually turn toward the right as a trough near California weakens the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF global models have shifted to the left of their previous forecasts, so the official forecast is also shifted in that direction. The official forecast track lies between the GFS/ECMWF solutions and the latest HWRF model run. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 19.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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