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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-10-13 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN... AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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