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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-10-21 16:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...PATRICIA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 97.5W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 97.5 West. Patricia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is likely to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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