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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-10-03 16:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 031456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MERIDA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)

2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 20.0, -87.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 5

2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 87.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Allen to Cancun, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for * North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gamma is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it makes landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A station at Cancun, Mexico, reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) within the past few hours. A station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg

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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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