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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-03 22:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Surface observations from the Yucatan Peninsula along with high-resolution visible satellite imagery indicated that the center of Gamma made landfall in the vicinity of Tulum, Mexico, shortly before 1700 UTC. Earlier aircraft observations and pressure measurements from Tulum showed that the system was very near hurricane strength when it made landfall. A ragged eye appeared in the visible images shortly after the center crossed the coast, but that feature has since become obscured. Since Gamma has likely been slowly weakening while moving over land, the current intensity has been set to 55 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely into Sunday while the center either moves over land or interacts with nearby land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin by Monday, but the numerical guidance is not very enthusiastic about intensification over the Gulf, probably due to the combination of drier air and the interaction with another low pressure system to the east. The official intensity forecast is not much different from the model consensus. Gamma has been moving northwestward, but it is expected to turn north-northwestward while moving near and into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next day or so. The global models predict that a trough to the north of the tropical cyclone will lift northeastward and bypass Gamma. In a couple of days, a ridge is forecast to build back, albeit weakly, across the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to cause the system to turn westward to southwestward over the latter part of the forecast period. The more reliable global models show the system meandering over the southern Bay of Campeche in 4 to 5 days, and so does the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma has moved inland, tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening and are expected to spread along the north coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.7N 87.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 032037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) 2(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO... INCLUDING COZUMEL...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF PUNTA ALLEN TO DZILAM MEXICO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 87.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel, and discontinued all watches and warnings from Punta Allen southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to move over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and pass near or north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast tonight and Sunday, followed by some re-intensification by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next several hours, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-10-03 20:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 971 WTNT35 KNHC 031735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 87.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for * North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move farther inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is likely through tonight while the center moves over land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin when the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur within the Hurricane Warning area during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and north of where the center crossed the coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should begin to subside later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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