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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-04 16:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 14:45:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 14:45:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Gamma was located near 22.2, -88.2 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 041443 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MERIDA MX 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 2(13) COZUMEL MX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041443 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 88.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday, and a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041443 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found the center of Gamma over the far southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Early morning visible satellite imagery has revealed decent banding structure over the northern and western portions of the circulation. The aircraft has measured a peak 850 mb flight-level wind of 66 kt and SFMR winds of 47 kt. A blend of these data support an initial intensity of 50 kt, which is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Gamma appears to be slowing down as anticipated, with an initial motion estimate of 360/3 kt. Gamma is expected to meander over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. By late Monday, the western portion of a subtropical ridge is expected to build westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should cause Gamma to turn westward to west-southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in how close Gamma tracks to the northwestern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. The NHC track splits these differences and is a blend TCVA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The new track forecast is very close to the previous official forecast. Although Gamma has re-strengthened this morning, increasing southerly wind shear is expected over the cyclone by tonight. This unfavorable upper-level environment is likely to cause some gradual weakening by late tonight and Monday. Since the vertical shear expected to remain moderate to strong through the latter portion of the forecast period, little overall change in strength is shown after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 22.2N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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